There’s no fate but what we make. And, as sure as death and taxes, The Boomer Bust is the fate we’ve made.
What is the Bust? In short: The end of a generation. A generation which has nearly all the money and owns everything of value in America. This fact especially relevant to Florida…since most of that money isn’t coming back.
The Boomer Bust starts in early-mid 1945 (the beginning of the generation) + 75 (low end life expectancy in the United States). Which, if math holds true, is right about now; mid-2019, the time of this writing. Late 2019 for males, a year or so later for females. Of course, that’s in the poorer areas of the country: read, “The Deep South.”
The Bust will hit places like Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri in about 2022. Texas, Pennsylvania, Virginia and (YES) Florida about 2023 or 24. More affluent and longer-lived states like California and most of the Northeast at average 80 years average will have till about 2025.
So, what happens during the Bust? In short: We’re screwed. Cataclysm, apocalypse, the death of a nation. All that. Though “experts” predict a stunning $3 Trillion downward wealth transfer, the reality is a bit darker for several reasons.
- Boomers Have all the money — According to AARP, Boomers (or people over 50) hold greater than 80 percent of the wealth in this nation. When they go, most liquid capital is going with them either through debt or reverse mortgaging.
- False Market Inflation from Social Security — We’ve experienced something of a boom in Central Florida over the last ten years or so. But it’s a false boost. And temporary. Our extra income is from retirees collecting Social Security, while vacating jobs now held by younger people. This has created a sort of dual income stream, especially in areas heavily populated by retirees; the jobs and services dependent on them will only last as long as they do.
- Millennial Debt – Millennials hold a disproportionate amount of America’s private debt at 34 percent. Average $42,000 each, or over $1 Trillion total. Much of which is student debt, which, under current law (thanks, Biden) can never be eliminated. And that’s just aged 18-34; the Millennial Generation actually goes back to late 1976.
- Most of Boomers’ Wealth is in Real Estate – This is a major problem for two reasons. First is that many siblings may be in line for inheritance. But they can’t all get it. So property value will go to far fewer people than the numbers suggest. Assuming there are net gains, at all. Because, second problem: If we learned anything from the Housing Bubble, it should be that property is only worth as much as the next guy is willing to pay for it. When nobody can afford to buy houses (or cars), their values plummet. We can’t bank on property or vehicles to count as inherited wealth; at best they represent an ever-diminishing recirculation. Marion or Alachua County residents whose homes are worth $100,000 today may, in five years, take $20k just to get rid of it. Same goes for cars, new and used.
Adding to this perfect storm of post-apocalyptic economic collapse are a couple other exacerbating factors:
- Mass Unemployment – On the macro scale, there’s really no such thing as a “service economy.” A service economy is a dying economy. It exists only as a means to circulate capital from previous production, in an ever decreasing spiral toward national bankruptcy. Which we reached a long time ago. We’ve just been perpetuating the illusion of wealth through super-saturation and recirculation of debt. But not much longer. Combined with the concordant drop in real estate and inherited goods value, service industry job loss will visit absolute economic Armageddon on the United States, and Florida specifically.
- Current Economic Mismanagement – We know the Bust is coming within the next four to eight years based on these factors alone. It’s an avalanche waiting to fall. But it could happen a lot sooner, as economic malfeasance from the White House may well trigger the collapse prematurely. Trump’s little game of Ultimate Insider Trading might accelerate the timetable on the Boomer Bust. And if that doesn’t do it, then his overheating of the economy by continuously dropping Federal Reserve interest rates almost certainly will.
While most economists agree right now that Trump’s #FakeEconomy is building a bubble to a massive recession (assisted in no small part by the destructive effects of his fake trade war on farmers and industry), they’re vastly underestimating the cascading avalanche of failure sure to follow. Trump hasn’t just lit the fuse on an economic atomic bomb…he’s triggering a global nuclear economic melt-down of End Times proportions. If we do nothing to intercede, because of the Boomer Bust, it may well be decades before America approaches solvency again. If ever. We could be watching the death of a nation, of every nation, in real time, right now.
So, what can we do?
Politically, we may have a narrow window of opportunity between 2020 and 2026 to pass the Progressive legislation needed to fortify our flanks against the Boomer Bust. Whatever we’re going to do in terms of economic or industrial reform, it has to happen by 2024 at the latest. If we wait till the canaries start dropping in Florida to take political or economic action, it’s too late. May already be. Trump’s economic bomb could explode any minute.
There’s no stopping this thing. It is coming, no matter what. Our efforts right now need to center on softening the blow of the Boomer Bust, and positioning ourselves for recovery afterward. Read my material on Industrial and Economic Reform if you want to see some ideas. Of them, small business protection and Industrial Reform (specifically Standardization and Modularity initiatives) are the most important. Without those, there will be no recovery. Period. Some other steps we must take, though:
- Student debt forgiveness will undoubtedly prove part of this action, since existing debt is effectively a black hole where wealth transfer concerned. But, best case, this is only going to extend our window of opportunity by a few years.
- Raising the minimum wage and reorganizing or private and corporate tax structures into more progressive directions will give us a bit more of a bulwark. It won’t prevent the Bust, but it’ll give us a chance at recovery before Thunderdome goes up. We need to completely reformat our economy from a top-down, corporatist model to a small-business, “carriage economy” with broad-based production and distribution. See my material on the Base-Minimum Multi-Tier corporate tax plan for details.
- Establish (both economically and environmentally) sustainable industry focused on local production of energy, and exportable durable goods. Florida cannot rely on tourism, agriculture and real estate anymore. We need to focus on real industry; broad-based, small-production industries providing the universal materials and energy needed to rebuild what’s left of our world.
If we do all this…there’s still no escaping Judgement Day. We built our house on sand, and lit a bomb underneath it. The Boomer Bust is coming, maybe all the sooner because of the greed, short-sightedness and corruption of those in charge.
We face an End. Certainly. But it doesn’t have to be THE End. Not if we act now. There’s no fate but what we make.
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